I suggest that it's best to watch Obama's speech because of course he does a masterful delivery and that's the best possible way to judge it.
I predict a bump for the Dems. Double the bump if Gustav as a hurricane hits New Orleans during the Republican convention. Could that be God's judgment? Or perhaps the mere threat is meant to be a potent reminder of just how bad Republican rule has been--and that McCain did little to mitigate it. No, it's mere chance--we're not the party that sees Divine Retribution everywhere, however much we may have begun to long for it as we watched so many atrocities these past 8 years.
However, once again it's coming at the end of the month when poor people are completely broke and have no money for gas or bus fare to evacuate. Let's hope FEMA is on top of things this time around.